I'm not a big fan of Tebow. I don't hate him as many do, but I certainly don't like him. As far as being a big football fan, it's annoying that this has all happened. I still don't believe that he will have consistent success in the NFL or that he has very many of the attributes needed to be an NFL QB. Everything about his throw is messed up. Denver is running this year's version of the Wildcat. Once teams have the tape and experience to clue in on the novelty of having him behind center they will destroy him. If you shut down his capability to run and make him pass all game, defenses are going to have a field day week in and week out. The Tim Tebow train won't go further than this season (and most likely no further than the first round of the playoffs). I expect them to lose to New England this week, a sign that, even with Tebow still catching defenses by surprise, the Broncos can't beat any real contenders. Let's also not forget how well the Bronco's defense has been playing or how games don't get won unless kicker Matt Prater is out there to kick 51 and 59 yard field goals to win games.
All true, though you would think one of the last six teams would have figured out the Wildcat deal, it isn't exactly top secret stuff that nobody has seen before. The one aspect of this that I do enjoy is the idea of a team trying something different, and against common wisdom discovering that it works. But, time will tell. It probably won't work over the long haul, and I am still rooting for them to lose.
It has been effective for a number of weeks, but I think there's a lot of information that coaches use to prepare that can only be gathered after they've played a given team and after they have a certain amount of games from which to see tape. The Wildcast was sort of gimmicky in the sense that it was an unorthodox way to play football that only worked because of its novelty, but it worked for most of the first season that the Dolphins implemented it. (It had been used in the NFL before that but only relatively sporadically). The Wildcat formation has been adopted by a number of teams since 2008, but you probably see less than one play out of that formation from those teams per game. Most of the time those plays don't work and even the Dolphins had little success with it in 2009.
NFL football changes somewhat with each generation, but you really only have a few general options of how to successfully run an offense:
1) Accurate pocket passer who can throw the ball downfield. Requires a QB with a lot of accuracy, arm strength, patience, and smarts.
2) Ball secure QB who can play a West-Coast offense. Requires a QB who is a good game manager with accuracy, ball control, and smarts.
3) Mostly run/ Play Action offense. Requires a QB with good accuracy, good arm strength, and the ability to fake the run.
I think that if you look back on the history of the NFL you'll find that most, if not all, successful teams have employed some form of one or more of these offenses. It is vitally important that every NFL QB has good accuracy. It's more or less important depending on the offense and the ability to run the ball, but inaccurate QBs can throw balls into the ground or throw picks even on short passes.
Tebow doesn't have a very accurate arm at all. His strength is his ability to run with the football, but QBs whose primary strength is to run have never really been successful in the NFL. Unless you have one hell of a defense you really need to pass the ball to win games. It seems like most teams nowadays use the run to set up the pass, the opposite of the NFL of the good ol days. The most successful running QB of the modern NFL has probably been Michael Vick, but even he has never gotten further than the first round of the playoffs.
Unless Tebow can fix almost all of his mechanics and turn into waaay more of a pocket-passer he'll never be very successful. The Broncos will get wasted in the playoffs this year unless we see some real good passing from Tebow for a chance, which I don't think is going to happen.
